J'ai trouvé ça sur le site du fameux presta, mais c'est plus sur les points que ça m'intriguait. Mais ouais, ça doit être en proba d'xG, et avec ça, il doit y avoir une proba combinée sur les deux équipes pour savoir combien de fois ils en marqueraient 3, combien de fois 1 et combien de fois 0, et une moyenne doit donner des virgules.
Simple supposition.
Pour les xG (je sais kask, c'est nul)
Citation:
Expected goals (xG) is a predictive ML model used to assess the likelihood of scoring for every shot made in the game.
For every shot, the xG model calculates the probability to score based on event parameters:
Location of the shot
Location of the assist
Foot or head
Assist type
Was there a dribble of a field player or a goalkeeper immediately before the shot?
Is it coming from a set piece?
Was the shot a counterattack or did it happen in a transition?
Tagger's assessment of the danger of the shot
These parameters (plus a few technical ones) are used to train the xG model on the historical Wyscout data and predict the probability of the shot being scored.
The probabilities range between 0 and 1. A shot of 0.1 xG means a shot like this should be scored 10% of the time. A shot of 0.8 xG means a shot like this should be scored 80% of the time. A penalty xG value is fixed to 0.76.